Bible Verse 📖

Proverbs 17:22

"A cheerful heart is good medicine, but a crushed spirit dries up the bones."

For me, this highlights the importance of maintaining a positive attitude and a cheerful heart, as it can have a profound impact on my well-being. Focusing on things that have went wrong and feeling pity for myself actually does make me feel like I’m shriveling into nothingness. Despair hurts the soul. I remind myself frequently to be optimistic because things always work out!

Optimism Bias

Optimism bias is a cognitive bias that causes people to overestimate the likelihood of positive outcomes and underestimate the likelihood of negative outcomes. This is something I experience frequently in my career as a project manager and in life in general. This bias affects expectations, judgments, and decisions in various aspects of life, such as health, finances, relationships, and career prospects.

Let me give an example of spring cleaning. It’ll be easy, we just have to clean the house and the cars. That should only take one weekend, right? I guess that would depend on how clean everything was in the first place, but for many of us, it would take a whole lot longer than just one weekend.

The cars need the trash thrown away, the outside and inside cleaned at a car wash, and the cup holders need a good scrubbing from all the spilled soda. Not to mention one of the cars need an oil change and filling up of the power steering fluid, and we’re fresh out and need to buy more fluid at Auto Zone.

The point is that the “simple” task of getting the cars clean always ends up being more work than what is initially thought. Unless we’re clearly defining the scope of the project from the outset, we will be trying to rush and play catch up when the weekend ends… and we’re only a quarter of the way through our spring cleaning.

We also can only control so much, such as the weather or if we get sick. I think every project needs some kind of buffer, for specific tasks, and/or for the whole project, and having an idea of what plan B could be.

For example, I could put a buffer of an extra half hour to detail the car because I’m sure I’ll find it more dirty than I think it is. I’ll also plan to spend at least one other weekend doing spring cleaning.

More than that, I’ll try to define and then stay within scope. “General spring cleaning includes cleaning the interior and exterior of our two vehicles, and tidying up every room. This does not include rearranging furniture, doing a deep dive into our wardrobes and going shopping, vehicle maintenance, or grocery shopping.” All those out of scope things are important, but we can assign separate time for those things.

There are several reasons for optimism bias:

• Self-enhancement: People tend to view themselves more positively than others, which leads them to believe that they are less likely to experience negative outcomes.

• Illusion of control: People often believe that they have more control over events than they actually do, which leads them to be overly optimistic about the future.

• Planning fallacy: People tend to underestimate the time, effort, and resources required to complete a task, leading to overly optimistic expectations.

• Confirmation bias: People are more likely to seek out and remember information that confirms their pre-existing beliefs and expectations, which can lead to an overemphasis on positive outcomes.

Optimism bias can have both positive and negative consequences. For me, it evokes feelings of resilience, motivation, and a more positive outlook on life. On the other hand, it can lead to unrealistic expectations and inadequate preparation for the challenges I want to face, which can ultimately result in negative outcomes.

Continue to be optimistic, and also face the reality that things always take longer than expected, especially the more complex the project is. Just plan to spend more time and resources to complete your projects. This will help you avoid feeling defeated.

To wrap this up, understanding and recognizing optimism bias can help strike a balance between maintaining a positive outlook and being realistic about expectations. By incorporating buffers and contingency plans, I better manage my projects and goals while still embracing the benefits of optimism.

Meaningful Song 🎧

God keeps His promises. I feel so much gratitude that He has show up for my when I thought I was alone, and that He always has. I know that He always will. This song celebrates God’s faithfulness and goodness to His children.

“In every season, in every hour,

You were faithful then, you’ll be faithful now.”

Book 📚

Tiago Forte recently announced that his new book detailing the PARA method, an organizational system for managing digital information, will be released in August. This method was part of his "Building a Second Brain" book, which focused on creating a knowledge management system, published last March.

I’m eager to get my copy and explore how to set up my second brain in more detail. I’ve been taking it slow, only implementing structure as I run into the need for it, and I hope this book will provide valuable insights on optimizing my existing tags and folders to make my digital organization more efficient. Here’s the preorder link:

Buy the Book on Amazon

Have a fantastic week,

Broc